2024 is turning out to be somewhat of a rollercoaster for the numbers of new trucks registered for use on the UK’s roads. The first quarter saw the registration volumes take a backward step which was reversed by improvement in the number in the second quarter. The performance from July to September plunged the figures into a negative with a drop in registrations of 6% compared to the same quarter in 2023. This puts the year so far into a decline of 2.5%.
Before we all start to wring our hands, it is worth putting these numbers in perspective. 2023 was an outstanding year as the market was benefitting from pent up demand post covid and the semi conductor shortages. The best ‘normal’ year to compare these figures to is 2019 – when you do, then they come out highly favourably – up by 26%. So, coming anywhere close to 2023 levels should be considered a success. Consider also that the UK was in the aftermath of a general election campaign and change of government with businesses waiting for the first budget before committing to any investment.
Tractor Unit Sales Struggle
As usual with statistics, the devil is in the detail. Whilst the UK truck market was down overall in the third quarter of the year, it was the tractor unit segment that dragged the performance down.
The registrations of rigid trucks actually rose by 6% in Q3, but tractor unit registrations were down a whopping 20.4%, dragging the market down.
How can this be that one segment does so much better than the other?
It can be explained away by the length of build time for a rigid truck compared to a tractor unit. Having a rigid truck bodies and any ancillaries like tail lifts or cranes fitted can take months longer that the build time for a tractor unit which is usually zero, as they come out of the factory ready for service.
With a shorter time between ordering and delivery, the tractor unit is more responsive to the economic environment than the rigid segment and therefore a better indicator of the market and its confidence. When the market is rising the tractor unit market increases first, but it is also the first to drop in a falling market.
So, falling tractor unit sales is not good news for UK Plc.
Which Truck Manufacturer Performed Best in Q3 2024?
Nearly every manufacturer struggled to beat their sales figures in 2023 – the only significant exception was Iveco who sold ten more trucks in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023 – so the question should be: Who did least badly in Q3 2024?
Let’s take a look at the market leader, DAF. They have been having an uncharacteristically poor year as far as registrations are concerned when compared to their bumper 2023. They are well under their usual 30% market share so far in 2024 as a whole, but Q3 indicates that they may have started to turn it around. For the full nine months, DAF is over -12% behind their 2023 levels with a 27.88% share, but in the last quarter, they were just -1.5% behind with a 31.18% share.
| Marque | Q3 2024 | Q3 2023 | % Change | %Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAF TRUCKS | 3,380 | 3,430 | -1.50% | 31.18% |
| VOLVO | 1,571 | 1,680 | -6.50% | 14.49% |
| SCANIA | 1,444 | 1,696 | -14.90% | 13.32% |
| MAN | 1,108 | 1,166 | -5.00% | 10.22% |
| MERCEDES | 1,055 | 1,245 | -15.30% | 9.73% |
| IVECO | 945 | 935 | 1.10% | 8.72% |
| RENAULT TRUCKS | 733 | 740 | -0.90% | 3.04% |
| ISUZU | 329 | 327 | 0.60% | 2.12% |
| DENNIS EAGLE | 230 | 269 | -14.50% | 1.98% |
| FUSO | 44 | 39 | 12.80% | 0.41% |
| VOLTA TRUCKS | 0 | 4 | -100.00% | 0.00% |
| Totals | 10,839 | 11,531 | -6.00% | 100% |
Volvo, on the other hand, have enjoyed a fantastic 2024 overall and are still 4.9% ahead after nine months, despite a very poor Q3 where registrations were down -14.9%.
Scania, who battles with Volvo for second place in the UK market, has continued along a similar path to the year as a whole. Down -6.5% in Q3 and -7.8% overall for the nine months, there is a slight upturn, but they remain behind Volvo for the YTD albeit only by 100 or so registrations. This means that by year end, Scania could easily reclaim their coveted second place in the UK market.
The poor performance by Mercedes-Benz in the most recent quarter means that the company has lost their place in the market share table to fellow Germans, MAN. The lead will, no doubt, be reversed come the year end since the margin is a massive two additional trucks sold by MAN compared to Mercedes-Benz in the first nine months of the year. It has been a long time since MAN have enjoyed the lofty fourth position in the UK market. Well deserved with growth of 22.6% for the year overall.
This brings us back to Iveco. Once upon a time, Iveco were topping the market share charts when the 7.5 tonne market was all Iveco Cargo then Eurocargo. More recently, registrations have been on a downward trend, but this year sees the company reverse the trend and put some clear air between themselves and Renault Trucks.
| Marque | YTD 2024 | YTD 2023 | % Change | %Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAF TRUCKS | 9,304 | 10,591 | -12.20% | 27.88% |
| VOLVO | 5,251 | 5,007 | 4.90% | 15.73% |
| SCANIA | 5,156 | 5,591 | -7.80% | 15.45% |
| MAN | 3,497 | 2,853 | 22.60% | 10.48% |
| MERCEDES | 3,495 | 3,775 | -7.40% | 10.47% |
| IVECO | 2,934 | 2,594 | 13.10% | 8.79% |
| RENAULT TRUCKS | 1,993 | 2,056 | -3.10% | 5.97% |
| ISUZU | 900 | 895 | 0.60% | 2.70% |
| DENNIS EAGLE | 662 | 630 | 5.10% | 1.98% |
| FUSO | 184 | 226 | -18.60% | 0.55% |
| VOLTA TRUCKS | 0 | 4 | -100.00% | 0.00% |
| Totals | 33,376 | 34,222 | -2.50% | 100% |
Battery Electric Truck Registrations (ZEV)
To call the registrations of new battery electric trucks a disappointment would be an understatement. In such a new area of the market to which legislation dictates we should be gravitating towards, achieving numbers that are almost half what they were this time last year is approaching catastrophic.
The absolute numbers are perhaps even more shocking. Q3 saw 10,788 diesel trucks over 6 tonnes GVW registered in the UK but just 51 battery electric trucks. For the year as a whole, the battery electric market share remains at about 0.5% of the total market.
Electric trucks are:
- Expensive to buy
- Expensive to install home charging infrastructure
- Limited in range
- Slow to recharge
- An unknown quantity as far as reliability is concerned
- Unable to find more than one public charging site in the whole country
However, there are operators who can afford the trucks and the infrastructure, only travel relatively local, short distances so do not need public chargers or long ranges. Sales uptake from an ever-increasing choice of ZEV trucks is also stymied by a grant system that involves a lengthy application process and covers less than half of all available models. Surely these operators must represent a demand of more than just 51 registrations over a three month period?
As it stands with a shared 2035 date, the UK ZEV new car share of registrations is running at 18% and trucks are just 0.5%.
The government has been flick flacking over the deadline for the phasing out of petrol & diesel new car sales. At the moment, the date was changed from 2030 to 2035 for cars and vans by Rishi Sunak when Prime Minister. The new Labour government has strongly hinted that it will reverse the decision for cars, but have made no mention of vans.
Will this leave trucks under 26 tonnes with a phase out date of 2035 – or will this be brought forward as well? Even staying as it is, there is just a decade to go until diesel truck sales must cease for under the 26 tonnes GVW weight range.
